The global softwood market is entering a period in which supply growth could remain below the pace of demand, with potentially significant consequences for log prices, softwood lumber, international wood trade and investment across the wood industry.

🌲 According to the latest Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook, global softwood roundwood supply is expected to increase by only around 0.5% per year through 2035. At the same time, demand from construction, packaging, biomass and other wood-consuming sectors is expected to grow at a faster rate.

For sawmills, lumber producers, timber traders and industrial wood users, this outlook points to a market in which access to competitively priced wood raw material could become increasingly difficult.

Global softwood supply is growing slowly

Global softwood roundwood production is currently close to its average level of the past 25 years, following a record high reached in 2021. However, the geographical structure of global wood supply has changed significantly.

Since 2000, North American softwood roundwood supply has declined by almost 20%, while Europe, Russia and other regions of the world have recorded increases.

🪵 The main challenge for the coming decade is not necessarily the absolute availability of forest resources, but the ability to harvest, process and transport wood at competitive costs to the world's major consuming markets.

Europe is approaching sustainable harvesting limits

Europe remains one of the world's most important regions for the production and export of softwood lumber, but additional supply growth potential is becoming increasingly limited.

In several European countries, harvesting levels are already close to biologically sustainable limits. Forest protection policies, biodiversity requirements and climate-related pressures may further restrict increases in available wood volumes.

In Central Europe, declining volumes of salvage logging following major bark beetle outbreaks and storm damage may also contribute to a tighter supply of softwood logs.

For a broader perspective on European softwood conditions, see WoodBusinessPortal.com's analysis of Europe's tightening lumber market and recovering wood demand.

Canada is unlikely to return quickly to historical production levels

Canada, traditionally one of the world's leading suppliers of softwood timber and lumber, could experience some stabilization and moderate recovery after several years of declining production.

However, analysts consider a rapid return to historical production levels unlikely, particularly in British Columbia, where timber availability has been affected by wildfires, insect damage, industry restructuring and permanent mill closures.

North America remains critical to the balance of the global softwood market. Over recent years, regional softwood roundwood supply has declined substantially, with Canada accounting for a large share of the reduction.

Southern United States has the strongest growth potential

📈 The southern United States is widely identified as the region with the greatest potential to increase future softwood wood supply.

Forest resources are substantial and harvesting volumes remain below biological forest growth. Nevertheless, labour availability, infrastructure, transportation capacity and the need for investment in sawmills and logistics may limit how quickly this resource can reach the market.

The existence of large timber resources therefore does not automatically translate into an immediate increase in commercially available logs or softwood lumber.

Russia has substantial timber resources, but market access remains difficult

Russia possesses significant underutilized softwood resources which, in theory, could contribute to additional global timber supply.

In practice, however, geopolitical risks, trade restrictions, infrastructure limitations and major investment requirements restrict the ability of this resource to balance the international wood market.

This may reinforce a growing separation between regions where forest resources are physically available and markets where there is effective demand for timber and wood products.

Plantations are unlikely to fully compensate for tighter wood supply

In Latin America, Asia and Oceania, forest plantations continue to provide competitive production costs. However, the area of softwood plantations has not expanded significantly during the past decade.

Future production growth is therefore expected to come primarily from higher forest productivity rather than from a major expansion of planted areas.

New Zealand and Japan also face limitations related to forest age-class structures, which can temporarily restrict the amount of timber available for harvesting.

Wood and softwood log prices could remain under pressure

When wood supply grows more slowly than demand, conditions are created for continued upward pressure on softwood log prices and lumber prices.

This situation is already visible across parts of Europe, where relatively high raw material prices coexist with cautious demand for processed wood products. Sawmills therefore face pressure from both expensive logs and limited ability to pass higher costs to lumber buyers.

For a detailed overview of these market conditions, see WoodBusinessPortal.com's analysis of high European log prices and current lumber market trends.

Global softwood lumber trade has contracted

The tightening outlook for raw material supply comes after a period of adjustment in international softwood lumber trade.

In 2025, the world's 15 largest exporting countries shipped just over 101 million m3 of softwood lumber to international markets, approximately 5% less than in 2024.

Canada recorded an export decline of around 11%, Germany approximately 15% and Austria around 5%, while Finland moved in the opposite direction with stronger foreign deliveries.

Changes in these export patterns illustrate how quickly wood trade flows can respond to production costs, raw material availability, exchange rates, transportation costs and regional demand.

Construction, packaging and biomass demand will be decisive

🏗 Construction remains one of the main drivers of demand for softwood lumber and structural wood products. A stronger recovery in residential construction in the United States and Europe could accelerate wood consumption precisely when additional supply is becoming more difficult to mobilize.

At the same time, packaging, pallet manufacturing, biomass and the growing use of timber in construction could create additional competition for available wood raw material.

This competition may influence not only softwood log prices but also the cost of lumber, structural timber, beams, CLT, glulam, wood panels and other wood products.

European wood market remains under pressure

The tightening global softwood outlook also comes at a time when European sawmills continue to face high raw material costs, cautious demand and pressure on production margins.

European softwood lumber production declined in 2025 and further moderate contraction has been expected in 2026. The key issue for many producers remains the difference between the price paid for logs and the price achievable for processed lumber.

A broader overview of these market conditions is available in WoodBusinessPortal.com's analysis of the wood market in 2026, including wood prices, demand, production and industry trends.

What does tightening softwood supply mean for the wood industry?

For companies operating across the forestry and wood sector, the outlook through 2035 highlights several important trends:

🪵 softwood raw material may become more difficult to secure at competitive prices;
📈 pressure on softwood log prices could remain elevated;
🌲 regional differences in timber availability will become increasingly important;
📦 wood imports and exports may shift toward new suppliers and markets;
🌎 investment in harvesting, logistics, sawmilling and processing capacity will become strategically important.

For sawmills and wood product manufacturers, securing long-term timber supply contracts and diversifying suppliers may become increasingly important elements of procurement strategy.

For timber traders and importers, regional differences in wood prices, timber availability and lumber production may create new trade flows and commercial opportunities.

Softwood market outlook through 2035

The base-case scenario does not suggest an absolute global shortage of softwood. Instead, it points to a market in which additional timber supply will become more difficult and more expensive to mobilize.

Demand from construction, packaging, engineered wood products and biomass is expected to continue growing, while biological limits, environmental regulation, infrastructure constraints, harvesting costs and climate impacts restrict the pace of supply expansion.

Under these conditions, softwood log prices may remain relatively firm over the longer term, while sawmill competitiveness will increasingly depend on raw material costs, production efficiency, logistics and access to reliable wood supply.

Wood market intelligence becomes increasingly important

For forestry companies, sawmills, timber traders, construction wood producers and other participants in the global wood industry, monitoring wood prices, softwood log prices, lumber prices, timber supply, imports, exports and construction demand will become increasingly important.

Even relatively small changes in raw material availability can influence lumber prices, sawmill margins and international wood trade flows when inventories are limited.

📊 Follow the global wood market with WoodBusinessPortal.com
WoodBusinessPortal.com provides market intelligence for professionals across forestry, sawmilling, timber trading, wood processing, construction and the international wood products industry.

🪵 Monitor wood, softwood log and lumber prices.
🌲 Follow timber supply and forestry industry developments.
📈 Analyse wood imports, exports and changing international trade flows.
🌎 Identify suppliers, buyers and new B2B opportunities across the global wood industry.

Visit WoodBusinessPortal.com for wood industry news, timber prices, lumber market analysis, wood imports, exports, statistics, forecasts and international B2B opportunities.

Sources

Lesprom Network
Sawmilling South Africa
Timber Online