The International Softwood Conference 2026, held in Dublin, Ireland, on 28-29 October, highlighted major challenges facing the European wood and timber industry: weak demand for softwood lumber, high raw material costs, pressure on sawmill profitability and uncertainty surrounding the construction sector.

The 74th edition of the conference, organised in cooperation with the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) and the European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF), attracted approximately 300 participants from 25 countries, including sawmill operators, timber manufacturers, wood traders and industry representatives.

European Softwood Lumber Production Expected to Decline in 2026

🌲 According to EOS figures presented at the conference, softwood lumber production in EOS member countries declined by approximately 10% between 2021 and 2023, before remaining relatively stable through 2025.

Preliminary estimates indicate a further 4% decline in softwood lumber production in 2026, primarily driven by reductions in Germany and Sweden. The European spruce lumber sector has been particularly affected.

European softwood consumption remains below its 2021 peak, reflecting subdued construction activity and weak residential building investment in several markets.

Softwood Log Prices and Sawmill Profitability

🪵 One of the central issues discussed in Dublin was the imbalance between high softwood sawlog prices and the selling prices of finished lumber.

The availability of bark beetle-damaged timber has declined in Central Europe following years of extensive salvage harvesting that previously supplied additional volumes of wood to sawmills.

At the same time, forestry operations, transportation and energy costs continue to affect sawmill profitability. A further decline in lumber prices during autumn 2026 has increased pressure on manufacturers' profit margins.

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Wood Imports and Exports: International Market Developments

📦 The conference examined major softwood timber trade flows across Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East.

In the United Kingdom, imports of sawn softwood declined by approximately 5% during the first half of 2026 compared with the corresponding period of 2025.

For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, softwood lumber shipments are estimated at approximately 8.3 million cubic metres in 2026, compared with 9.2 million cubic metres in 2025.

Russian softwood lumber exports have fallen by more than 50% compared with their 2019 peak, reflecting international sanctions, logistical challenges and weaker demand from China.

These developments may create new opportunities for European timber suppliers, while also increasing competition in certain international export markets.

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Could Europe Face a Softwood Log Shortage?

One of the key long-term themes at the conference was the future availability of forest raw materials for the European sawmill industry.

According to the presentations, spruce resources in Central Europe are increasingly affected by climate-related risks and declining salvage logging volumes.

As spruce availability changes, the industry may need to increase the use of pine timber in wood construction and engineered wood products.

In a relatively optimistic scenario presented at the conference, global sawn softwood consumption could increase by approximately 0.5% annually through 2035.

A future recovery in international construction and lumber demand could increase pressure on softwood log supplies, even though current market conditions are characterised by relatively weak demand.

European Wood and Timber Market Outlook for 2027

🌿 The outlook for the European softwood lumber market in 2027 remains cautious. The construction industry may require additional time to recover to activity levels recorded before 2022.

However, adjustments to sawmill production capacity, growing renovation activity and the development of timber construction could contribute to improving the market balance.

Softwood log prices, lumber supply, energy costs and construction demand will remain important factors influencing profitability and international timber trade.

There is no single reliable forecast for European softwood lumber prices in 2027, as market conditions differ between producing countries and export destinations.

Business Opportunities for the International Wood Industry

For sawmills, softwood lumber manufacturers, timber suppliers and wood exporters, the conclusions of the Dublin conference highlight the importance of diversifying export markets, monitoring timber prices and improving raw material efficiency.

Companies capable of providing consistent product quality, competitive delivery conditions and documented timber origin may be better positioned to develop long-term international B2B partnerships.

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Sources and References

EOS - Official findings and market analysis from the International Softwood Conference 2026.
EOS - Conference programme and event information, Dublin 2026.
Fordaq - MENA softwood lumber import trends and forecasts presented at the conference.